2011年4月9日星期六

New York "endangered" as rising seas

8 April 2011, last updated at 12: 00 GMT Richard Black by Richard Black environment correspondent, BBC News, Vienna New York (Image: BBC) places as New York is expected to experience an above average sea level is a big loser boost New York and Reykjavik of the winner of the new forecasts of sea level rise in various regions.

The intergovernmental on climate change (IPCC) said Panel in 2007, sea levels would rise at least 28 cm (1 ft) by the year 2100.

But this is a global average; and now, the first attempt to model all factors to regional variations has a Dutch team what appears to be.

Other researchers say that the IPCC a huge be underestimating figure is likely.

What is always the global figure, it is regional differences.

Ocean currents and differences in temperature and salinity of sea water are among the factors which mean that sea level varies currently up to one metre above the oceans by - this includes not short-term changes due to tides or winds.

So the regional patterns of highs and deep will change if currents change with global warming expected less saline as ice sheets is - and if regions such as the Arctic Ocean are also its contents into the sea - discharge.

"Everyone have the impact is, and in many places, they will receive the average increase in" Roderik said van der Wal from Utrecht University, one of which present the team meet their regional projections on the European Geosciences Union (EGU) in Vienna.

"But places like New York, have a greater contribution than the average - 20% more in this case - and Reykjavik will be better off."

New York sees the 13 regions where the team specific projections makes, the biggest increase of the global average, although Vancouver, Tasmania and the Maldives also are expected to see above the average effects.

Gravity-trap

A special feature of the projections is that areas away will experience a smaller sea level rise as the more closer melting ice sheets.

This is because gravity water ice sheets on Greenland and Antarctica.

This draws the water toward the coast, so effectively it far accumulated, which can be measured in centimeters.

When the ice begins to melt, it raises the average height simply by entering by sea; but gravity is now smaller, so local sea level can take.

"So when the Greenland melts sheet more, which is better for New York;" "but if Antarctica is melting, which is worse for New York-and it is also true for North-Western Europe", Professor van der Wal told BBC News.

The effects are particularly for Reykjavik, which pronounced projected that at the next capital in Greenland, less than half of the global average sea level is to get.

Ice sheet question

Roderik van der Wal is one of the scientists the sea level projections contained in due course in the next IPCC assessment, out in 2013-4 will be.

Until then other scientists are expected to have completed more regional models, which can be used in this mix

"We have to start the regional projections make right, and at this point, there is still a lot of uncertainty," commented Stefan Rahmstorf, sea level specialist of Potsdam Institute for climate impact research in Germany.

"But it is clear that some parts of the world feel much faster than other parts of sea level rise;" and in addition land movements.

"In some places like a lot of the Scandinavian coast, the land rising so quickly that they belong to no problem with the sea level rise in the near future, while in other places, which is the country - to decrease some of the big Delta cities in the world."

Just before the last IPCC report released in 2007, Professor Rahmstorf published research shows, that sea level was increased faster, that climate models.

Since then he and others concluded with various techniques, that somewhere is likely half meter to two meters by the end of the century.

He came to the EGU with further analysis put the likely range of 0 75-1, 9 m - range of uncertainties in how ice can melt and how society may or may not respond to the results of the climate scientists by controlling greenhouse gas emissions reflects.


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